The nonlinear characteristics of Chinese stock index futures yield volatility

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to consider that the model of volatility characteristics is more reasonable and the description of volatility is more explanatory.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the basic characteristics of market yield volatility based on the five-minute trading data of the Chinese CSI300 stock index futures from 2012 to 2017 by Hurst index and GPH test, A-J and J-O Jumping test and Realized-EGARCH model, respectively. The results show that the yield fluctuation rate of CSI300 stock index futures market has obvious non-linear characteristics including long memory, jumpy and asymmetry.FindingsThis paper finds that the LHAR-RV-CJ model has a better prediction effect on the volatility of CSI300 stock index futures. The research shows that CSI300 stock index futures market is heterogeneous, means that long-term investors are focused on long-term market fluctuations rather than short-term fluctuations; the influence of the short-term jumping component on the market volatility is limited, and the long jump has a greater negative influence on market fluctuation; the negative impact of long-period yield is limited to short-term market fluctuation, while, with the period extending, the negative influence of long-period impact is gradually increased.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper has research limitations in variable measurement and data selection.Practical implicationsThis study is based on the high-frequency data or the application number of financial modeling analysis, especially in the study of asset price volatility. It makes full use of all kinds of information contained in high-frequency data, compared to low-frequency data such as day, weekly or monthly data. High-frequency data can be more accurate, better guide financial asset pricing and risk management, and result in effective configuration.Originality/valueThe existing research on the futures market volatility of high frequency data, mainly focus on single feature analysis, and the comprehensive comparative analysis on the volatility characteristics of study is less, at the same time in setting up the model for the forecast of volatility, based on the model research on the basic characteristics is less, so the construction of a model is relatively subjective, in this paper, considering the fluctuation characteristics of the model is more reasonable, characterization of volatility will also be more explanatory power. The difference between this paper and the existing literature lies in that this paper establishes a prediction model based on the basic characteristics of market return volatility, and conducts a description and prediction study on volatility.