The Non-Random Nature of Terrorism: An Exploration of Where and How Global Trends of Terrorism Have Developed Over 40 Years

Abstract

ABSTRACTWe examined the geographic concentration and persistence of terrorism using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD logs all terrorist incidents worldwide using open-source media, and, for 1970–2013, includes over 125,000 incidents from over 200 countries and territories. We examined regional and country-level data; different terrorism forms, severity levels, and timeframes (entire period, five-year periods, and annual); and multiple definitions of “elevated” terrorism. The findings reveal that terrorism is concentrated geographically and temporally. Most countries experience peace or very low levels of terrorism; only a few experience substantial outbreaks; very few experience prolonged terrorism; and even fewer, prolonged severe terrorism.