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Abstract
An earlier paper by Lacey (1990) examined the National Football League betting market, using data from the 1984–1986 seasons. He tested 13 technical rules for betting and found several that had winning proportions significantly greater than 0.5 and were also profitable after transaction costs. That represented a violation of the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. This paper provides an independent test of those same rules over the 1987–1995 NFL seasons. None of the strategies were profitable or had winning proportions significantly different than 0.5. Lacey's results were apparently just a statistical aberration rather than an exploitable anomaly. The results herein suggest the Efficient Markets Hypothesis was not violated.
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