The Nexus Between Remittance Inflows and Financial Development in India: Substitutes or Complements?

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between remittance inflows and financial development in India from 1980 to 2018. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models to capture the short and long-run dynamics. In addition, the impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analysis were utilised to understand the dynamic reaction of financial development to a given shock to remittance inflows and other variables. The results of the ARDL model reveal that remittances negatively influence financial development in the short run, while they positively influence it in the long run. The IRF analysis shows that financial development responds positively to one standard positive shock to remittance inflows. The FEVD analysis further reveals that shocks to remittance inflows explain around 30% to 32% of the total variation in financial development. From a policy standpoint, the findings suggest that well-framed policies should be formulated and implemented to encourage more remittance flows through formal channels. It will boost financial development, economic growth and also increase the other developmental effects of remittances on the economy. JEL Codes: C32, F22, F37