Abstract
This essay places the contemporary period of global development in long-run historical perspective, elaborates a model of world-system cycles and trends, and discusses the main structural forces influencing the probability of future war among core powers. The possible continuation of the cycle of hegemonic rivalry is discussed in terms of the similarities and differences between the coming three decades and earlier periods in which a declining hegemon was challenged by upwardly mobile states. Possible bids for economic and political hegemony by Japan, Germany, China and the United States are discussed, as are the possibilities for different coalitions in East Asia and Europe. The phenomenon of bloc formation is discussed in a long-term perspective that includes earlier periods of colonial empire and "commonwealth." We conclude that there is a significantly high probability that warfare among core states could occur in the 2020s. The prospects for global state formation within the next three decades are considered. We recommend a combination of the build-up of U.N. peace-keeping forces and the continuation of U.S. military strength as the least worst and most feasible solution to the problem of avoiding nuclear holocaust in the 2020s.
Highlights
This essay places the contemporary period of global development in long-run historical perspective, elaborates a model of world-system cycles and trends, and discusses the main structural forces influencing the probability of future war among core powers
Instead of the traditional pattern of hegemonic transition, in which one core power emerges victorious from a world war, these scholars foresee the gradual consolidation of international institutions with the capability of coordinating a multipolar, "post-hegemonic" world
Keohane and Nye (1993) argue that contemporary international institutions have at least some capacity to disseminate information and partially coordinate the actions of states, so that worstcase scenarios predicted by realist models of political anarchy should be less and less likely to occur
Summary
The world-systems perspective posits the existence of a set of institutional structures, cyclical processes and secular trends that are features of the modern world-system as a whole. A new period of relatively greater global economic growth will last from 20 to 30 years During this period the major core powers (the United States, Japan, Germany (or German-led Europe) and perhaps China) will compete with one another for comparative advantage in the new lead industries of this K-wave upswing: infomatics and biotechnology. Goldstein's study shows how this "war wave" tracks rather closely with the Kondratieff long economic cycle over the past 500 years of world-system history. It is the future of this war cycle that we are trying to predict
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