The next nuclear wave: renaissance or proliferation risk?

Abstract

This article examines the extent of the so-called ‘civil nuclear renaissance’ and the danger it poses to the integrity of the international non-proliferation regime. It also explores the drivers behind the resurgent interest in nuclear energy, as well as the arguments against increased reliance on nuclear power. The article argues that growing interest in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy – even when tempered by strong safety, environmental, economic and security concerns – poses a real challenge to global non-proliferation objectives, a challenge exacerbated by the contradiction at the heart of the non-proliferation treaty architecture. However, the article does not accept the view that civil nuclear capability will inexorably lead to proliferation. Rather, it finds that motive is as central as capability in determining the likelihood of proliferation, and highlights the difficulties of safeguarding against future intentions. Following a brief discussion of the Southeast Asian and North Asian contexts, the paper concludes with a short discussion of how proliferation risks stemming from an increase in nuclear energy might be mitigated.