The new Sheffield risk and benefit tables for the elderly

Abstract

Several charts or tables are used to guide treatment in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). These usually relate to patients up to 75 years of age, leaving older patients without guidance. Most also present this information as risk, leaving patients to estimate the benefit of treatment and decide whether it is worthwhile. We present tables to display both CVD risk and benefit from treatment in the elderly. A systematic review identified CVD risk functions for the elderly. The Dubbo study of older patients' 5-year CVD risk equation was deemed most appropriate, due to the population studied, endpoints observed and risk factors recorded. By dichotomizing most risk factors, we produced a new risk table in the form of the original 'Sheffield table'. Risk is calculated by selecting the appropriate table for gender and the appropriate cell from the rows and columns, representing age and risk factor contributors, respectively. Total cholesterol above a cell value corresponds to a 20 or 40% 10-year CVD risk. A simple risk scoring system was then derived from the Dubbo equation. Calculation of risk score requires knowledge of a patient's simple demographics, systolic blood pressure and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Positive integers corresponding to level of risk for each contributing factor are then added together to give a final risk score. A Markov chain model was produced based on the Dubbo derived risk and relative risk reductions from published meta-analyses of 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) and anti-hypertensive treatment. Using this model, individual scores were mapped to likely benefit from treatment in terms of disease free years. Our risk table provides a simple means for calculating risk in the elderly, to two major thresholds, while the benefit table explores the concept of presenting benefit of taking CVD-preventing medication.