The New Port of New York and New Jersey Operational Forecast System

Abstract

he real-time Port of New York and New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) became operational on 10 February 2003 at NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) in Silver Spring, Maryland. NYOFS generates hourly nowcasts and hourly forecast guidance out to 30 hours of currents and water levels for the Port region, including Raritan Bay, Newark Bay, and Upper Bay, the Kill Van Kull, Arthur Kill, the lower Hudson River, and the East River. NYOFS graphical products—including time series, maps, and animations of water levels and currents, nowcasts, and forecast guidance—are disseminated through an NOS Web site (http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ NYOFS/nyofs.shtml). The model predictions are displayed as a graph of the water-level height and current velocity at measurement stations and other locations throughout the bay (Fig. 1). The system has been incorporated into NOS’s Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS®), which provides an operational monitoring system (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) for quality assurance and control of the NYOFS inputs, operational procedures, and product dissemination. Historically, mariners navigating in New York Harbor have used NOAA’s tide and tidal current tables for the best estimate of expected water levels and currents. However, these tables cannot predict changes due to wind, atmospheric pressure, and river flow, which are often significant (Fig. 2). Furthermore, the tide water level and tidal current predictions are available at only a few locations. Although new technology, such as PORTS, at selected locations maintained by NOS provides near-real-time information to the users, there is still need for more information for assuring navigation safety. These include 1) near-real-time water level and current information at locations without gauges, 2) shortterm (1–2 days) water level and current forecast guidFig. 1. NYOFS nowcast/forecast guidance locations.