The New Information Age and the Stock Market Growth Puzzle

Abstract

The New Information Age & the Stock Market Growth Puzzle Mr. Manoj Subhash Kamat* Mrs. Manasvi Manoj Kamat** Abstract We investigate the nexus between developments in financial intermediation with the growth in capital market activity and implications for the retail investors in India, over the post-liberalization period ranging 1993-2004. The estimations using unrestricted VAR based on error correction models, both in the short term and the long term models illustrate the short run relationship the time-series properties of stock market development and the new information age nexus. The coherent picture which emerges from Granger-causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) further reveals that in the long run, stock market development Granger-causes financial infrastructural growth. Our findings suggest that the evolution of financial sector and in particular the stock market tends to, or is more likely to stimulate and promote economic growth when monetary authorities adopt liberalized investment and openness policies, improve the size of the market and the de-regulate the stock market intone with the objectives of macroeconomic stability. This study provides robust empirical evidence in favor of finance-led growth hypothesis for the Indian economy.