The New Global Economic Crisis: How Will Globalization Change?

Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of the impact of the new economic crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of globalization processes. The authors focus on four classical streams (trade, investment, human and information and communication), which cover most aspects of international activity. The authors note that the current stage of globalization is characterized by new interconnections and interdependencies of national economies, and international factor flows, even before the spread of COVID-19, showed a weakening of the trade and investment component of globalization. At the same time, tourist and migration flows previously demonstrated their ability to quickly recover even after a slight decline during the crisis of 2008-2009. continued to grow until 2020, when there was a sharp stop. Particular attention is paid to the impact on the globalization processes of the “Chinese factor” and digital technologies. China, as a “global factory,” is central to global value chains. Consequences of supply disruption due to COVID-19 has serious consequences for both MNCs located in China and beyond. Available forecasts show that during 2020 we can expect an increase in adverse trends in the development of globalization. It is noted that the new crisis will accelerate the development of technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, which play a key role in restoring economies after quarantine. The decade after 2020 is likely to be the decade of the transformation of international production, the development of which will be determined by the pace and scale of the introduction of digital technologies. Unlike other areas of globalization, in the field of internet penetration and informatization, the pandemic played a positive role, significantly increasing the volume of interstate traffic through the Internet and other communications. During this period, social networks, Internet commerce companies, new platforms received an additional impetus. In conclusion, the authors conclude that the restoration of globalization of consumers and the search for new forms and directions of their information and communication interaction can give a new impetus to the development of modern globalization.