The new demography of the 21st century: part 1 – the birthrate surprise

Abstract

PurposeThe paper aims to reveal a surprising global drama now unfolding across the world: unpredicted demographic trends portend unexpected social transformations.Design/methodology/approachUsing recent research, the paper considers the startling implications of some current demographic trends.FindingsThe paper reveals that marketers and strategists need to radically rethink their mindsets based on new trends. For example, by the year 2050, more American babies will be born than Chinese ones.Research limitations/implicationsIt is important to note that trends in demography can be particularly misleading.Practical implicationsMany widespread assumptions based on previous demographic trends now seem to be misguided. For example, Northern and western Europeans are now projecting steady population growth over the coming half‐century.Originality/valueSurprising current trends and factors include: birthrates are falling across most of the developing world, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. The one glaring exception to this global trend is sub‐Saharan Africa, which by the end of this century may be home to as much as a third of the human race. Even as Russia is becoming rich with its oil and gas wealth, the death toll – attributed to alcoholism, smoking, improper nutrition, avoidance of healthcare, psychological stress – continues to be unnecessarily high and its young male workforce looks set to fall by half. A great religious revolution will take place this century, as Africa becomes the home of most Christians and to as many Muslims as Asia, and far more than in the Middle East.