The new bedside ROCky score to predict the complications in patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism

Abstract

ObjectivePulmonary embolism (PE) remains one of the leading causes of mortality among cardiovascular diseases. We aimed at investigating risk factors of PE complications in patients with intermediate risk and integrate them into a simple model for its' bedside prediction. MethodsAmong 173 patients with PE, 136 were classified as high or intermediate risk. Patients were retrospectively divided into groups of complicated (n = 44) or uncomplicated (n = 92) course. Study endpoints: obstructive shock, recurrent PE, needs for resuscitation/thrombolysis/hemodynamic support and death during 30 days. ResultsPredictors of PE complications were: chronic heart failure, diabetes mellitus (DM), atrial fibrillation, permanent risk factor of venous thromboembolism, syncope, positive heart-type fatty acid binding protein (hFABP), positive troponin I, heart rate (HR) ≥ 110 bpm, systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≤ 100 mmHg, creatinine clearance ≤ 70 ml/min. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model a simple predictive score named ROCky (Risk of Complications): HR ≥ 110 bpm (1.5 points), SBP ≤ 100 mmHg (2.5 points), positive hFABP (2 points) and presence of DM (2.5 points). The AUROC of this model was 0.89 to predict any complication, 0.83 for obstructive shock and 0.92 for death from any cause; the optimal cut-off scores for any complication was ≥2.5 points, ≥3.5 for obstructive shock and ≥4.5 points for death within 30 days. ConclusionhFABP, tachycardia, hypotension and DM were identified as the major independent determinants of complications development in patients with pulmonary embolism and may be used in combination as the bedside simple predictive ROCky score for early risk stratification in intermediate-risk group.