Abstract
Inflammation is a risk factor for morbidity and mortality in the elderly. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a marker of systemic inflammation that integrates the information of the leukocyte differentials into one variable. We aimed to assess whether the NLR is a risk indicator for overall and cause-specific mortality in the general population. We analyzed data (2002–2014) from the Rotterdam Study, a long-standing, population-based, prospective cohort study in a community-dwelling ageing population. The association between the NLR and time to all-cause mortality was assessed with Cox proportional hazard models. We additionally assessed cardiovascular, cancer and other mortality. The multivariable analyses were adjusted for age, gender, socio-economic status (SES), smoking status, body mass index, type 2 diabetes, and history of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data of 8715 individuals were included. The mean age was 65.9 years (SD 10.5) and the majority were women (57.1%). The NLR was higher in men, higher age categories, smokers and among individuals with lower SES, prevalent diabetes, or a history of cancer or CVD. During the 11.7 years follow-up period, 1641 individuals died. Survival among individuals in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th quintile of the NLR was significantly poorer than that of those in the 1st quintile (P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, NLR levels were independently and significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.44–1.86), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.49–2.48), and other mortality (HR 1.86; 95% CI 1.54–2.24). No significant association was found for cancer mortality (HR 1.20; 95% CI 0.95–1.51). The NLR is a strong and independent risk indicator for mortality in the elderly population. Its clinical value needs to be established in further studies.
Highlights
Inflammation is considered an important risk factor for morbidity and mortality in the elderly
The remaining 45.4% died from another cause such as: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a pneumonia, as a consequence of an accidental fall or multi-comorbidity including Parkinson’s Disease and Alzheimer’s Disease
Previous studies have shown that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a prognostic marker for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease and cancer [13, 14]
Summary
Inflammation is considered an important risk factor for morbidity and mortality in the elderly. It is still largely unclear whether we may speak of a causal relation between inflammation and mortality, or whether the inflammation is a manifestation of an underlying illness that causes early death. C-reactive protein (CRP) has been extensively studied as a marker of inflammation and as a risk indicator for cardiovascular, cancer, and all-cause mortality [2,3,4,5]. No conclusive evidence has been found on its potential causal role in mortality of any cause and its clinical use for early identification of patients at risk of cardiovascular disease [2, 4, 6].
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