The netnographic method as early warning: Linking antecedents of pre-release behavior of technology-enabled community to future market trends

Abstract

Using the netnographic method, this study contributes to our understanding of the motivational factors (antecedents) which influences the online behavior of technology-enabled online community members. Such online behavior, which includes activities such as participation in different topics of discussions, posting comments, participating in rating and voting processes, is found to vary for different topics of discussions. After identifying the antecedents which explains the variations in community's online behavior during the pre-release period of upcoming products using the netnography method, these antecedents are then linked to the future market trends, thus providing an early warning system.Following the netnographic approach which includes entrée, data collection and analysis, interpretation, and member checks, the findings show that the pre-release online behavior is influenced by a number of factors (antecedents): product characteristics, user characteristics, social factors, adoption intention, attitude, expectations, and product information. As many of these antecedents were used to forecast market performance (sales) in several past studies, it can be implied that the online behavior-based variables, which is the outcome of all the above identified antecedents, are potential signals or predictors of future sales. Preliminary investigation also revealed that there is strong correlation between the community-variables and sales, suggesting the usefulness of these pre-release community-variables in predicting future sales. Moreover, the study also highlights the usefulness of the netnographic method in understanding the attitudes, preferences, opinions, and adoption intentions of community members long before the product is launched in the market.