THE NEED FOR NEW URBAN HOUSING IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: PROBLEM OR OPPORTUNITY

Abstract

This article estimates the scale of need for housing units in Sub-Saharan Africa the affordability of housing and the role of government investments in meeting housing needs. Urban population is expected to be about 260 million by 2000. Increases vary by African region. Need for housing is expected to increase from an additional 7.7 million in eastern Africa during 1990-99 to 12.1 million during 2000-09. The respective increases in need would rise in western Africa from 8.3 million to 13.2 million in middle Africa from 3.3 million to 4.6 million and in southern Africa from 2.0 million to 2.4 million. The number of 5-person households would be over 60 million greater in urban areas in 2010 than in 1980. More housing units will be needed if household size is smaller. In developed countries the rate of growth of housing units needed in short time frames and under great pressure is 10-15 dwellings per 1000 population per year. In Africa the rate will be greater than 10 dwellings per 1000 population per year and resources are more limited. Housing need includes new units to supply new households new units to relieve overcrowding and replacement or repair of existing units. Affordability of housing is found to vary widely between countries and cities. Urban housing need will be greatest in Nigeria. Prosperous countries where housing needs are large such as South Africa have need that is concentrated among those unable to afford to pay. In developing countries generally the poorest spend the most on housing but in Africa incomes are too low for most to be able to afford a self-contained dwelling. Responses to housing need are rooted in provider-based approaches rather than in economic development terms. Project-oriented housing approaches to government investment begun during the 1970s are more successful for low- to moderate-income groups. The recommended strategy is one promoted by the UN Global Strategy for Shelter (1990) that relies on low-cost technologies rental units or units smaller than complete houses production of housing as investments lower buyer or renter costs and use of both formal and informal sectors.