The Need for Multi‐Century Projections of Sea Level Rise

Abstract

AbstractThe latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided scenario‐based local sea level projections to 2150 and characterized the long‐term committed global mean sea level rise on 2,000‐ and 10,000‐year time horizons associated with peak surface warming levels. Turner et al. build on the scientific assessment of the IPCC to provide time‐continuous projections of future sea level rise to 2500. These projections fill an important knowledge gap to help inform coastal decision‐making processes and more fully quantify the benefits of mitigation actions in terms of limiting future sea level rise. However, limited understanding of ice instability processes remains a key scientific challenge and improved observational and modeling capability are critical to reducing uncertainties and monitoring the trajectory of observed change.