Abstract

Artificial intelligence &#x0028 AI &#x0029 is once again a topic of huge interest for computer scientists around the world. Whilst advances in the capability of machines are being made all around the world at an incredible rate, there is also increasing focus on the need for computerised systems to be able to explain their decisions, at least to some degree. It is also clear that data and knowledge in the real world are characterised by uncertainty. Fuzzy systems can provide decision support, which both handle uncertainty and have explicit representations of uncertain knowledge and inference processes. However, it is not yet clear how any decision support systems, including those featuring fuzzy methods, should be evaluated as to whether their use is permitted. This paper presents a conceptual framework of indistinguishability as the key component of the evaluation of computerised decision support systems. Case studies are presented in which it has been clearly demonstrated that human expert performance is less than perfect, together with techniques that may enable fuzzy systems to emulate human-level performance including variability. In conclusion, this paper argues for the need for &#x201C fuzzy AI &#x201D in two senses: &#x0028 i &#x0029 the need for fuzzy methodologies &#x0028 in the technical sense of Zadeh &#x02BC s fuzzy sets and systems &#x0029 as knowledge-based systems to represent and reason with uncertainty; and &#x0028 ii &#x0029 the need for fuzziness &#x0028 in the non-technical sense &#x0029 with an acceptance of imperfect performance in evaluating AI systems.

Highlights

  • Following several peaks and troughs, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is once again at the forefront of Computer Science research around the world

  • Whilst sub-symbolic approaches such as deep learning are currently the vogue, this paper argues for the need in specific contexts for knowledge-based approaches to AI, with explicit representation of and reasoning with uncertainty

  • This paper has made the case firstly for the need for fuzzy expert systems, as a useful component of a suite of tools necessary for explainable AI systems, and for the need for variation to be incorporated within such systems

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Following several peaks and troughs, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is once again at the forefront of Computer Science research around the world. Whilst IBM have never published full details of the algorithms employed, Deep Blue featured a high-speed parallel implementation of an alphabeta search featuring a board evaluation algorithm [1] In this regard, the term ‘AI’ or even ‘machine intelligence’ can be disputed as an accurate description of what is essentially a brute-force search algorithm containing no real intelligence; Deep Blue beat a human at chess (arguably, the best in the world) in a task that requires human intelligence. Whilst sub-symbolic approaches such as deep learning are currently the vogue, this paper argues for the need in specific contexts for knowledge-based approaches to AI, with explicit representation of and reasoning with uncertainty. As part of this argument, the use of fuzzy techniques is advocated as one suitable approach that can deliver the necessary capabilities. Some possible future directions of research are outlined and the main conclusions are summarised

EXPLAINABLE AI
FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS
EVALUATING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
The Turing Test
Evaluating Decision Support Systems
VARIATION IN HUMAN REASONING
VARIATION IN EXPERT SYSTEM REASONING
MODELLING AND MEASURING VARIATION
Non-Stationary Fuzzy Sets
Modelling Variation in Umbilical Acid-Base Assessment
Impact of Variation on Performance
VIII. DISCUSSIONS AND OBSERVATIONS
Variation and Learning
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Findings
CONCLUSIONS
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