The need for built-in validation of surveillance data so that changes in diagnostic performance of post-mortem meat inspection can be detected

Abstract

Time trends in animal-disease surveillance often are evaluated on the basis of crude estimates of apparent prevalence. In addition to possible changes in the true prevalence of the condition, changes in apparent prevalence over time might reflect changes in sensitivity and/or specificity of the diagnostic classification used. To illustrate this, comparative post-mortem meat inspection data from four Danish slaughter plants sampled in 1993–1994 and 1997–1998 were used to obtain latent-class model estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of traditional and extended post-mortem meat inspection of visceral and parietal chronic pleuritis (CP), respectively. True prevalence of CP was estimated for each study period and slaughter plant by latent-class models. Estimated sensitivities of traditional post-mortem meat (TPM) inspection ranged from 28.8 to 61.4% (1993–1994) and 39.2 to 87.3% (1997–1998). An increase in sensitivity with time was seen for all slaughter plants. Estimated sensitivities of extended post-mortem meat (EPM) inspection ranged from 85.7 to 94.8% (1993–1994) and 73.8 to 93.0% (1997–1998). All estimated specificities were >93.3%. The possible association of the estimated true prevalence of CP with time (1993–1994 versus 1997–1998) was investigated with a logistic-regression model with random effects. A slight, but non-significant decrease in the odds of CP from 1994 to 1998 was found (odds ratio=0.9). In this and similar situations, one should consider conducting ongoing double-classification of samples of units followed by statistical estimation of true prevalences, sensitivities and specificities, so that decisions can be based on such estimates rather than on crude apparent prevalences.