Abstract
Models for long-term investment planning of the power system typically return a single optimal solution per set of cost assumptions. However, typically there are many near-optimal alternatives that stand out due to other attractive properties like social acceptance. Understanding features that persist across many cost-efficient alternatives enhances policy advice and acknowledges structural model uncertainties. We apply the modeling-to-generate-alternatives (MGA) methodology to systematically explore the near-optimal feasible space of a completely renewable European electricity system model. While accounting for complex spatio-temporal patterns, we allow simultaneous capacity expansion of generation, storage and transmission infrastructure subject to linearized multi-period optimal power flow. Many similarly costly, but technologically diverse solutions exist. Already a cost deviation of 0.5% offers a large range of possible investments. However, either offshore or onshore wind energy along with some hydrogen storage and transmission network reinforcement appear essential to keep costs within 10% of the optimum.
Highlights
As governments across the world are planning to increase the share of renewables, energy system modeling has become a pivotal instrument for finding cost-efficient future energy system layouts
The objective function is subject to a set of linear constraints, including multi-period linear optimal power flow (LOPF) equations, resulting in a convex linear program (LP)
Before delving into near-optimal solutions, we first outline the characteristics of the optimal solutions for different emission reduction levels
Summary
As governments across the world are planning to increase the share of renewables, energy system modeling has become a pivotal instrument for finding cost-efficient future energy system layouts. Energy system models formulate a cost minimization problem and typically return a single optimal solution per set of input parameters (e.g. cost assumptions). Public acceptance of large infrastructure projects, such as many onshore wind turbines or transmission network expansion, ease of implementation, land-use conflicts, and regional inequality in terms of power supply are prime examples of considerations which are exogenous to most energy system models. Bypassing such issues to enable a swift decarbonization of the energy system may justify a limited cost increase.
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