Abstract
Bulk carriers have been linked with high risks of structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study used Lloyd's casualty records to investigate the extent to which dry bulk shipping has become safer over the last 30 years, and to identify shipping factors associated with the risks of bulk carriers' foundering and crew fatalities in recent years. Although there have been reductions over time in bulk carrier casualties and crew fatalities since the early 1980s, with an interim peak during the early and mid 1990s, there have been increases since 2005, linked partly to several bulk carriers that foundered when carrying nickel ore. Of 11 shipping factors considered, the strongest independent predictors of foundering and crew fatalities in recent years were the flag state, the cargo, the location of the casualty, weather conditions and the gross tonnage. Over the study period, elevated casualty and crew fatality rates were linked strongly with newly emerging or expanding flags.
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