Abstract
Risk analysis is important for complex projects; however, systemicity makes evaluating risk in real projects difficult. Looking at the causal structure of risks is a start, but causal chains need to include management actions, the motivations of project actors, and sociopolitical project complexities as well as intra-connectedness and feedback. Common practice based upon decomposition-type methods is often shown to point to the wrong risks. A complexity structure is used to identify systemicity and draws lessons about key risks. We describe how to analyze the systemic nature of risk and how the contractor and client can understand the ramifications of their actions.
Highlights
Risk analysis is important for complex projects; systemicity makes evaluating risk in real projects difficult
Front-end analysis and preparation are becoming increasingly important in the management of complex projects (Williams & Samset, 2012)
Our understanding of complex projects shows us that risks affect projects in combinations
Summary
Risk analysis is important for complex projects; systemicity makes evaluating risk in real projects difficult. A review of this body of work (Williams, 2005) and its implications showed that project behavior could be explained by systemic inter-related sets of causal factors rather than linking effects to single causes but, behavior (resulting from the dynamics set up) that turned into positive feedback loops, or ‘vicious circles.’. “Undesirable events (contingencies) are often caused by a multitude of problems . . . these problems often cascade, compound, and become intricately linked . . . . clearly even small and anticipated contingencies . . . can lead to issues with other groups, confusion, organizational conflict, sinking team spirit, and fading commitment.” (Thamhain, 2013, p. 29)
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