Abstract
Econometrics and traditional modeling have not accurately forecast the effects of prices and policies on future oil supplies. A lack of specific data and the assumption that field behavior is too erratic for successful modeling have been obstacles to using a less-aggregated analysis. A study of exploration behavior as it relates to a particular geologic basin examines the role of field expectations in setting wildcat drilling behavior. New discoveries were found to stimulate additional exploration for a period of two to two-and-one-half years. The implications this has for effective exploration incentives and drilling behavior are outlined, and the empirical results are compared with traditional modeling. 16 references.
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