The nature and possible causes of land cover change (1984 –1996) along a rainfall gradient in southeastern Botswana

Abstract

Land cover change analysis was undertaken in semi-arid southeastern Botswana. The aim was to determine how remotely sensed data could be applied over time and under different rainfall regimes to help assess the relative significance of biophysical and human factors in causing land cover change in a rapidly evolving developing world context. To this purpose, land cover changes were studied along an east (hardveld)-west (sandveld) gradient of decreasing rainfall and decreasing population density. Three years of Thematic Mapper imagery from 1984, 1994 and 1996, covering the period from the 1980s drought to the 1990s ‘normal’ rainfall regime were analysed using supervised classification techniques. Land cover change analysis revealed that over a large part of the study area the dry and more biophysically vulnerable western sandveld showed greater vegetation recovery than the eastern hardveld with its more productive soils and higher rainfall. Underlying causes behind this apparent reversal of trends are inferred to be mainly socioeconomic in nature and particularly related to higher population density due to the rise of salaried urban occupation opportunities in the hardveld. This work concludes that, while biophysical causes of change are important, the human dimension is regarded as being more significant especially where human factors negate otherwise positive biophysical effects in an agrarian developing country.