The natural history of metastatic progression in men with PSA-recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy: 25-year follow-up

Abstract

5008 Background: In men with prostate specific antigen (PSA) recurrence following radical prostatectomy (RP) and no other therapy, the natural history of metastatic progression was previously described in 1999. We now report data reflecting up to 25 years of follow-up. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 774 men treated with RP between 4/1982 and 7/2008 who developed PSA recurrence (>0.2 ng/ml) and never received adjuvant or salvage therapy. We investigated factors influencing the development of metastases. Results: Mean follow-up after RP was 8.5 y (median 8 y). Of 774 men with PSA recurrence, 295 (38%) developed metastases, and 433 had data on PSA doubling time (PSADT), forming our cohort. The mean time from RP to PSA recurrence in the entire cohort was 4.2 y (median 3 y). In those who developed metastases, the mean time from PSA recurrence to metastasis was 3.1 y (median 2 y). The mean PSA at the time of metastasis was 90.3 ng/ml (median 31.4 ng/ml). In Cox regression analysis: PSADT, Gleason score, and time to PSA progression were predictive of the development of metastases ( Table ). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the median actuarial time from PSA recurrence to metastasis was 10 y (95% CI 9 - 15 y). Median actuarial metastasis-free survival from PSA recurrence for men with PSADT <3 mo, 3 - 8.9 mo, 9 - 14.9 mo, and >15 mo was 1 y (95% CI 0 - 1 y), 4 y (95% CI 2 - 6 y), 9 y (95% CI 7 - 13 y), and 15 y (95% CI 12 - 20 y), respectively. Conclusions: PSADT, Gleason score, and time to PSA progression are strong independent predictors of metastasis-free survival in men with PSA-recurrent prostate cancer. These data facilitate patient counseling and logical risk-based treatment planning. They also provide the background for appropriate selection of patients, treatments, and endpoints for clinical trials. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.