The nationalization of electoral change in a geographical perspective: the case of Italy (2006–2008)

Abstract

This paper assesses the nationalization of electoral change in a setting of major changes at the party level. After discussing the theoretical difference between the configuration of the electorate and its movement, the Italian case is examined. In order to check whether strategic voting dynamics took place between the 2006 and 2008 Italian Parliamentary elections, the swing voters’ estimates are obtained. After having shown that the Italian electorate behaved strategically, we investigated whether the swing had a national or a territorial pattern. The findings show that the switching occurred in Italy between the 2006 and the 2008 elections can be considered national.