The Myth of the Independent Voter, California Style

Abstract

Much recent California political commentary stresses the sharp rise in the proportion of voters declining to state a party preference and the supposed increasing importance of political independents. Yet The Myth of the Independent Voter and other political science literature provide grounds for skepticism, emphasizing the strong partisan leanings of most self declared independents. We reexamine the evidence, drawing on the most appropriate source of data: Field Polls of the California electorate over many years. We find that expectations from Myth generally hold up well. Most California independents lean toward one or the other major party, the portion of pure independents has increased only marginally, Californians continue to follow their party allegiance in expressing voting preferences, and on several measures pure independents remain the least civically engaged adults. We also analyze why misconceptions about independent voters are so enduring despite political science evidence to the contrary.