The myth of the biotech revolution: An assessment of technological, clinical and organisational change

Abstract

This paper argues that despite being widely promoted by academics and consultants, the empirical evidence does not support the existence of a biotech revolution. Nor does the data support the widely held expectations that biotechnology is having a revolutionary impact on healthcare or economic development. The revolutionary model is therefore a misleading basis for policy making as it over-estimates the speed and extent of any changes in productivity or the quality of therapeutics. Instead, the evidence suggests biotechnology is following a well-established incremental pattern of technological change and ‘creative accumulation’ that builds upon, rather than disrupts, previous drug development heuristics.