The music of the spheres and the prosaicness of statistical criteria: A response to B.L. Berry’s paper “Heliogeophysical and other natural processes, periods of their oscillations, and forecasts”

Abstract

According to B.L. Berry’s “harmonic model,” any natural or social process is a superposition of several cosmic rhythms. The author assumes that stability of these rhythms allows prediction of earth phenomena over an unlimited time. We show that the statistical criteria supposedly substantiating the harmonic model were applied incorrectly. The initial data for the analysis were biased and selected incompetently; the adequacy of the methods used was not verified. Predictions of natural catastrophes (earthquakes, weather anomalies, etc.) and various social events according to Berry’s model are unsatisfactory. Statistics do not confirm that these predictions are at least slightly better than random guessing. Berry’s model is unacceptable; it is untenable both in detail and in general.