Abstract

Numerous contexts in macroeconomics, finance, and quality control require real-time estimation of trends, turning points, and anomalies. The real-time signal extraction problem is formulated as a multivariate linear prediction problem, the optimal solution is presented in terms of a known model, and multivariate direct filter analysis is proposed to address the more typical situation where the process’ model is unknown. It is shown how general constraints – such as level and time shift constraints – can be imposed on a concurrent filter in order to guarantee that real-time estimates have requisite properties. The methodology is applied to petroleum and construction data.

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