The multilayer perceptron approach to lateral motion prediction of surrounding vehicles for autonomous vehicles

Abstract

For safe and reliable autonomous driving systems, prediction of surrounding vehicles' future behavior and potential risks are critical. The state-of-the-art prediction algorithms tend to show limited performance on long-term predictions due to their deterministic nature. In this paper, a probabilistic lateral motion prediction algorithm is proposed based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) approach. The MLP model consists of two parts; target lane and trajectory models. In order to develop an intuitive and accurate prediction algorithm, a lane-based trajectory prediction model is introduced based on the fact that vehicles drive within a lane except for during lane changes. More specifically, a set of three representative trajectories with different levels of lane-change positions are generated for each target lane, and real-world traffic data is categorized by each trajectory for MLP training. These target lane and trajectory models enable the stochastic MLP modeling and training. The proposed MLP model outputs probabilities of how likely a vehicle will follow each trajectory and each lane for a given input of vehicle position history including current position. For training the MLP model, Next Generation Simulation traffic data are used. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm detects lane-changes one to one and a half second earlier than existing methods and three seconds before lane crossing with about ninety percentages accuracy.