Abstract

Short- and medium-term projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic indicators are of great interest to those evaluating the needs for health care and prevention interventions. We developed a simulation procedure to obtain forecasts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and used it to estimate the characteristic regional parameters of the epidemic in Italy. The simulation procedure is based on a hybrid compartmental model, in which the epidemic evolves via nonrandom mixing patterns. Because of its structure, the model is suitable for policy making; in particular, for evaluating prevention campaigns, alternate forms of health care for people with AIDS, and drug supply needs. The model will also be used to estimate the number of intravenous drug users in Italy and the number of AIDS cases not reported or reported with a delay to the Italian surveillance system.

Full Text
Paper version not known

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.