The mortality-incidence ratio as an indicator of five-year cancer survival in metropolitan Lima.

Abstract

IntroductionThe Mortality–Incidence Ratio complement [1 – MIR] is an indicator validated in various populations to estimate five-year cancer survival, but its validity remains unreported in Peru. This study aims to determine if the MIR correlates directly with five-year survival in patients diagnosed with the ten most common types of cancer in metropolitan Lima.Materials and methodsThe Metropolitan Lima Cancer Registry (RCLM in Spanish) for 2004–2005 was used to determine the number of new cases and the number of deaths of the following cancers: breast, stomach, prostate, thyroid, lung, colon, cervical, and liver cancers, as well as non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and leukaemia. To determine the five-year survival, the five-year vital status of cases recorded was verified in the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status (RENIEC in Spanish). A linear regression model was used to assess the correlation between [1 – MIR] and total observed five-year survival for the selected cancers.ResultsObserved and estimated five-year survival determined by [1 – MIR] for each neoplasia were thyroid (66.7%, 86.7%), breast (69.6%; 68%), prostate (64.3%, 63.8%) and cervical (50.1%, 58.5%), respectively. Pearson’s r coefficient for the correlation between [MIR – 1] and observed survival was = 0.9839. Using the coefficient of determination, it was found that [1 – MIR] (X) captures the 96.82% of observed survival (Y).ConclusionThe Mortality–Incidence Ratio complement [1 – MIR] is an appropriate tool for approximating observed five-year survival for the ten types of cancers studied. This study demonstrates the validity of this model for predicting five-year survival in cancer patients in metropolitan Lima.