The more the merrier? Questioning the role of new commercial and industrial locations for employment growth in German city regions

Abstract

A large share of urban land is dedicated to commercial and industrial activities. While this is considered key for economic development, the contribution of such areas to urban expansion has also been strongly criticised from environmental and societal perspectives. Clearly, the interrelations between economic activity and land use are highly relevant to planning and policy development. Yet relatively little is known about patterns of commercial and industrial land at the level of city regions and their effect on economic development.The goal of this contribution is to present an empirical approach for analysing the development of commercial and industrial land within city regions and to place this in a socio-economic context. We argue that land provision at suitable (i.e. central) locations has a positive effect on employment. To test this hypothesis, we investigate relevant land use changes by analysing processed topographic land use data and location by centrality in regional road networks, using the example of city regions in southern Germany for the period 2006–2018.Our results reveal regional patterns of distinct spatial and socio-economic trends that indicate suburbanisation processes and the emergence of polycentric patterns. While employed is closely correlated with absolute change in land in both large and small regions, the correlation between location and employment decreases with the size of regions. The results confirm the viability of the chosen approach to illuminate processes within functionally-interlinked city regions and promote a discussion of cause-effect relationships between the provision of commercial/industrial areas and employment.