The More, the Emptier: The Consequences of Growing Concentration in Urban Office Space in Poland

Abstract

ABSTRACT The paper identifies and measures the economic consequences of the rapid saturation of commercial real estate markets in Poland. We document a negative link between the growing concentration of office buildings in the Polish real estate submarkets and building-level vacancy rates. Slower absorption in the areas that are more densely built up is accompanied by lower asking rents. The impact of saturation in real estate markets on building-level fundamentals is heterogenous across different classes of real estate assets, and high-quality buildings are less vulnerable than the low-quality buildings. Our findings demonstrate that higher density in office space harms investors.