The Monte Carlo approach to the economics of a DEMO-like power plant

Abstract

An early assessment of the economics of a fusion power plant is a key step to ensure the technology viability in a future global energy system. The FRESCO code is here used to generate the technical, physical and economic model of a steady state DEMO-like power plant whose features are taken from the current European research activities on the DEMO design definition. The Monte Carlo method is used to perform stochastic analyses in order to assess the weight on the cost of electricity of uncertainties on technical and economical aspects. This study demonstrates that a stochastic approach offers a much better perspective over the spectrum of values that could be expected for the cost of electricity from fusion. Specifically, this analysis proves that the cost of electricity of the DEMO-like power plant studied could vary in quite large range, from nearly 2/3 to nearly 4 times the cost derived through a deterministic approach, by choosing reference values for all the stochastic parameters, taken from the literature.