The Modi lahar (wave) in the 2014 Indian national election: A critical realignment?

Abstract

In India's 2014 general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured an outright majority of seats, the first time any party has done so since 1984. This has led to claims that this is a ‘critical’ or ‘realigning’ election. Yet, most Indian elections are initially described as ‘critical’ elections, which suggests that this concept needs to be further refined to be analytically useful in India's electorally volatile and regionalised political context. This commentary conceptualises critical elections in India as those that enable the winning party to build lasting regional social coalitions. Such coalitions need to be consolidated in subsequent elections for a realignment to take place. A mastery of regional politics was crucial to the BJP's 2014 win, which does mark this as a potentially realigning election. Yet, questions remain about its ability to consolidate the coalitions that delivered this result.2014年的普选中，印度人民党获得了绝对多数的议席，破了1984以来各政党的记录。这被看作一次“关键性”的、改弦易辙的选举。不过，印度的选举一开始也多被说成“关键性”的选举。所以，这个概念尚需推敲，以便能够用来分析印度变幻不定的选情以及地区化的政情。本文将印度的“关键性”选举界定为获胜党得建立长久的地区社会联盟。这个联盟需要在日后的选举中加固，才谈得上改弦易辙。把握好地区政治对于人民党2014年选举的胜利至关重要，它使得这次选举成为潜在的改弦易辙。但它是否有能力加固联盟以释放改弦易辙的效果，则还是一个问题。