The Modern State and Development Trends of the Russian Criminal Market of Some Categories of Goods Allowed for Commerce, under Pandemic Conditions

Abstract

The author analyzes the contemporary state of the criminal market of goods allowed for commerce in the Russian Federation, and its changes under COVID-19 conditions. The analysis uses statistical data of different governmental organizations that register the trade in such goods, as well as on the expert evaluations by leading Russian and foreign analytical companies specializing in the analysis of illegal trade. The author assessed the dynamics of the situation with several groups of goods most common in commerce, which were subdivided into industrial goods and foodstuffs. The pandemic led to a considerable transformation of the criminal markets segment connected with the illegal trade in industrial goods. This transformation was primarily caused by changes in the share distribution for traditional industrial goods in this segment (for example, an increase in the share of goods that were not significant for trade before the pandemic - medications, medical equipment and personal protective equipment, automobile parts, etc.), as well as the appearance of new groups of goods on the criminal market, where an increase in illegal trade is caused by the desire of the state to compensate for the damage brought about by the pandemic through excise duties (cigarettes, tobacco products). The analysis of the situation on the criminal market of foodstuffs shows negative trends connected with shadow trade in both alcohol and some other foodstuffs, especially dairy and fish products. At the same time, these segments of the criminal market are widening rapidly, and their future prospects can be described as unfavorable due to the virtualization of the market. Besides, new segments are being formed on the legal market (for example, the market of virtual goods that are only valuable for gamers in the sphere of computer entertainment), and their development is also determined by the pandemic and the absence of legal regulation of trade within these segments.