Abstract
In this work, the process of roofing projects’ execution is considered. The proper analysis of this process is important to optimise the behaviour of a project’s participants and to perform risk evaluation. The main result of this work is methodology, which can be used to optimise a project owner’s decisions and potentially can be applied for risk control or integrated into expert systems. This methodology includes the application of a decision tree and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method to perform the modelling for roof installation project selection. In the proposed approach, a decision tree describes the process with nodes representing the states of a project. The tree includes the decision on whether to sell the project results or not, which requires the estimation of the subjective opinion of the project owner. These subjective values are used in the decision tree leaves. We propose to perform this estimation with the AHP method and describe how to do it in this paper. A particular example was considered. The proposed methodology was applied to that case, and all details of the process and results are provided. Using the proposed methodology, the adapted version of a specific, current situation model of project participants’ behaviours can be formed, allowing one to make the most efficient decisions in the light of the existing constraints. The application of results can increase the investor protection and contribute to the general sustainability of investments.
Highlights
One of the tools, selected to investigate by the authors of this article, is the decision tree, which can be used to analyse the behaviours of the participants in the selection and implementation of the roof installation projects and to make the most efficient decisions
The second tool is the analytic hierarchy process, which is used to provide a decision tree based on subjective opinion data from the roof installation project owner
The authors of the article proposed the methodology, which lets one model the behaviour of roof installation project participants, and they applied it to the example case
Summary
In this research we consider roof installation projects, which can be defined as the organised, temporary processes of constructing, renovating, refurbishing, etc., a roof. We investigate such projects from the point of view of project owner (investor); the profit is the goal function in optimisation problems that arise as a part of the this research. One of the tools, selected to investigate by the authors of this article, is the decision tree, which can be used to analyse the behaviours of the participants in the selection and implementation of the roof installation projects and to make the most efficient decisions. The second tool is the analytic hierarchy process, which is used to provide a decision tree based on subjective opinion data from the roof installation project owner
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