The Modelling of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Contaminated Environments in Bangkok, Thailand.

Sudarat Chadsuthi,Surapa Wichapeng

doi:10.1155/2018/5168931

Abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in a continuing endemic in Thailand. There are no specific vaccines or antiviral treatments available that specifically target HFMD. Indirect transmission via free-living viruses from the environment may influence HFMD infections because the virus can survive for long periods in the environment. In this study, a new mathematical model is proposed to investigate the effect of indirect transmission from contaminated environments and the impact of asymptomatic individuals. By fitting our model to reported data on hospitalized individuals of HFMD endemic in Bangkok, Thailand, 2016, the basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.441, which suggests that the disease will remain under current conditions. Numerical simulations show that the direct transmission from asymptomatic individuals and indirect transmission via free-living viruses are important factors which contribute to new HFMD infections. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number is sensitive to the transmission rate of asymptomatic and symptomatic subgroups and indirect transmission. Our findings suggest that cleaning the environment frequently and healthcare precautions which include the reduction of direct transmission rates should be promoted as effective control strategies for preventing the HFMD spread.

Highlights

Foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an emerging illness, which most frequently caused by coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-71) infecting infants and children [1]
Our result indicates that direct transmission from asymptomatic infected individuals and indirect transmission via free-living virus impact on R0, which contributes to the transmission dynamic of HFMD [16]
It is suggested that enteroviruses can survive for a long period in suitable conditions [9]

Summary

Introduction

Foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an emerging illness, which most frequently caused by coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-71) infecting infants and children [1]. Symptoms of HFMD are fever, painful sores in the mouth, and a rash with blisters on hands, feet, and buttocks [2]. HFMD spreads mainly in children, who are under five years old, because they are more likely to be susceptible to infection by these viruses [2]. The disease has spread in many countries of the western Pacific region, which is the most severely affected region in the world, such as Japan [3], Malaysia [4], Singapore [5], Thailand [6], and China [7]. In Thailand since 2001, HFMD has been monitored under the National Disease

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Conclusion