The Model of Population Transition in Vietnam in Relation to Europe and Asia: A Quantitative Approach

Abstract

This paper analyses the population transition model for Vietnam, based on Grover’s five stages of population transition. Compatible with the transitional model of Western Europe and other advanced Asian countries, this process in Vietnam has some significant differences: (a) the initial shift or transition of fertility of the population in Vietnam is later than in Asian countries by about 13 years while compared to Europe it is nearly 108 years later; and (b) while the period of initial transition of mortality in Vietnam may not be very different from other Asian countries, it is more than 100 years later than in European countries, especially those in Western Europe. One of the main factors influencing the late transition of Vietnam’s population process is, of course, colonialism and the consecutive wars (1945–1954 and 1955–1975). After 1975, Vietnam’s population was stable as industrialisation and urbanisation led to the development of health services, education and an urban lifestyle, as well as effective population policies.