Abstract
Abstract The predictability of both synoptic and planetary scales of atmospheric motion is currently about 1 week. This limit is insurmountable relative to the synoptic scale only. The authors hypothesize that the predictability loss of the planetary scale is determined by artificial desynchronizations of low-frequency atmospheric oscillations. The main reason for the latter is errors of initial data. To verify this hypothesis, a barotropic quasigeostrophic spectral model is averaged with respect to wave phases, taking into account the synchronizations of planetary wave oscillations that appear in atmospheric statistics. Running the averaged model with real initial data reveals the ability of the model to overcome the weekly predictability limit.
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