The missing link – The importance of the capability concept for relating risk assessments and plans

Abstract

The Hyogo and Sendai frameworks stress that risk assessments should inform plans. However, it is unclear how, in theory, risk assessments and plans are conceptually related and how, in practice, they inform each other. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap. Conceptually, it proposes an explicit link between risk assessments and plans via the capability of the responding organisation and its effect on the severity of consequences. By including capability descriptions in risk assessments and plans, the strength of knowledge increases. This, in turn, makes it easier to use the output from one document as input to the other. Empirically, the study focuses on the current Swedish practice and on an analysis of risk and vulnerability assessments and plans prepared by 25 local municipalities, and interviews with representatives from nine municipalities. The results show that the examined documents do not describe capability in a way that makes it possible to relate risk and vulnerability assessments and plans to each other. Moreover, no other link between the documents is evident. Interviews confirm that the activities do not inform each other, partly due to a lack of resources and a poor understanding of the work. Instead, the efforts seem to focus on compliance; to simply submit the required documentation. Such a focus could hinder reducing losses from disasters. To strengthen current practice, this study recommends including capability descriptions in risk assessments and plans in order to strengthen their knowledge foundation and facilitate the integration of the activities.