Abstract
This study examines the migration intentions of young people in Egypt before and after the 2011 revolution, driven by three sets of factors: (1) individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, (2) household characteristics, and (3) community characteristics and political and civic participation. Logistic regression models are applied to study the determinants of intentions to live, study, or work abroad among young Egyptians (defined as individuals aged 18 to 29), using data from the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE) conducted in 2009 (N = 8488) and in 2014 (N = 5885). The surveys are nationally representative, covering all governorates in Egypt. The analysis indicates that respondents’ age, gender, marital status, and employment status play a significant role in shaping migration intentions. After the 2011 revolution, the effects are dependent upon economic and institutional conditions. The employment status affects the migration intention of young people in 2009; but the effects become insignificant in 2014. Moreover, respondents who have participated in political and voluntary activities are more likely to express migration intentions. Pollution levels in the community are also positively correlated with the intention to migrate. The results indicate that those who expressed migration intentions are a selective group in terms of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings have policy relevance because knowledge and understanding of migration intentions and their determinants can be used to assess and develop scenarios about future migration.
Highlights
The decision to migrate, both within a country and internationally, is motivated by the wish to increase the quality of life [1,2]
The objective of this paper was to study one important aspect of the migration decision-making process, focusing on migration intention among young people in Egypt before and after the 25 January Revolution in 2011. This topic is relevant because migration intentions have been shown to be related to migration realization, and the survey shows that intentions were quite important among youth in 2009 and 2014
The results show that socioeconomic factors are the most influential indicators driving migration aspirations among young people in Egypt
Summary
The decision to migrate, both within a country and internationally, is motivated by the wish to increase the quality of life [1,2]. Media reports and popular discourses typically paint an apocalyptic image of an influx of desperate migrants from Africa trying to enter Europe [6] These claims, are often not based on empirical evidence. While the estimates are useful in providing an overview of global migration trends, they have some limitations [9] One limitation of these estimates is that additional migration events to third countries or return migration are not accounted for and may underreport the total number of migrants. To this end, a study of changing migration intentions in people before and after the political upheaval can provide useful information and evidence to help assess the changes in migration flows
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