Abstract
This paper reviews the existing and proposed systems of support for EU agriculture especially in relation to the likely negotiations in the WTO, and their implications on NZ are explored. The current proposals include reduction in market support and increases in direct payments increasingly tied to environmental and social criteria. Using a partial equilibrium trade model (LTEM), the impact on NZ and the EU trade and producer returns of changes in EU agricultural policy is estimated. The results of this analysis show that the reform packages so far have an insignificant impact on NZ, however, introduction of agri-environmental polices in the EU are predicted to increase NZ producer returns significantly.
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