The middle Huaihe River stability analysis and optimization of hydrological chaos forecasting model

Abstract

Based on the monthly flow time series data of main hydrological stations in the middle Huaihe River from 1985 to 2015, the river stability of Zhengyangguan–Bengbu and Bengbu–Fushan reaches is scientifically judged by nonequilibrium thermodynamics. The results show that the river pattern is in a stable state, and there is no transformation possible in a short time; the evolution of riverbed tends to be stable, and the influence of riverbed boundary conditions is greater than that of incoming water and sediment conditions. Based on fully understanding the stability of the middle Huaihe River, to improve the intelligence of hydrological forecasting, the chaotic characteristics of monthly flow time series are identified, then the artificial neural network forecasting model is optimized by chaos theory and optimization algorithms. Our findings suggest that the nonequilibrium thermodynamic analysis methods of river stability can provide a new idea for the study of river characteristics, and the forecasting model combined with chaos theory and optimization methods provide an effective technical means to improve the hydrological forecasting accuracy of the middle Huaihe River.