The Middle East at a Crossroads: How to Face the Perils of Nuclear Development in a Volatile Region

Abstract

The global nuclear regime may have reached a crossroads: the states par ties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty have called for the establish ment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems in the Middle East. Now that Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have reached a deal in Geneva over a phased verification of the peaceful character of Iran’s nuclear program, the international community needs to address broader regional issues. Failure to move forward could imperil the global nonproliferation architecture. At the same time, little thought has been given to how this regional arrangement would work both internally (with its member states) and externally (with other organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency). This article reviews the obstacles and windows of opportunity for a comprehensive regional nuclear settle ment by drawing lessons from recent history in Europe. In particular, the history of the European Atomic Energy Community suggests how a future regional organization with jurisdiction in all aspects of nuclear develop ment should articulate its functions with existing international organiza tions such as the IAEA. In Europe, regional institutions have played a crucial role in creating trust among former warring nations and in harmo nizing the regional and global nuclear orders. A EURATOM-like organiza tion would be a great step for the Middle East and a great model for other regions that must deal with issues of global legal complexity (e.g., how they can harmonize regional and global orders so that they can pursue the same goals with different but compatible means). KEYWORDS : Middle East, EURATOM, weapons of mass destruction, regime complexity. NUCLEAR ENERGY IS ON THE RISE AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW nuclear power plant projects, especially in volatile regions like the Middle East, new security concerns are likely to dominate international affairs in the coming years. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates significant growth in the use of nuclear energy worldwide—between 23 per cent and 100 percent by 2030—although the agency’s projections for 2030 are 1‐9 percent lower than projections made in 2011. 1 The spread of nuclear