Abstract
ABSTRACTDiversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad. At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens. Relying on social identity theory (SIT), I deduce two hypotheses to help explain why conflict can increase popular support for leaders. First, conflict with an outgroup can make people identify more strongly with their ingroup. Second, stronger ingroup identification can lead to increased support for leaders inside the group. The second part of the article applies these two hypotheses to Russia's seizure of Crimea in early 2014. Attitude surveys show that the Crimea conflict increased national pride among Russians while support for President Vladimir Putin rose dramatically, and they suggest that the two processes were causally linked. These findings support the article's two hypotheses.
Highlights
Diversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad
At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens
Stronger ingroup identification can lead to increased support for leaders inside the group
Summary
Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Zeitschriftenartikel / journal article. Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Theiler, T. Nutzungsbedingungen: Dieser Text wird unter einer CC BY Lizenz (Namensnennung) zur Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den CC-Lizenzen finden Sie hier: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/1.0/deed.de. Diese Version ist zitierbar unter / This version is citable under: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-67856-1
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