The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific

John Gibson,David Mckenzie

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.11.002

Abstract

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion and patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data suggest a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.

Highlights

Brain drain has long been one of the most common concerns developing countries have about migration
There is a long, mostly theoretical, literature on the consequences of brain drain for developing countries, with recent literature pointing to the possibility of “brain gain” from highly skilled emigration through impacts such as an increase in the incentives to acquire human capital, remittances sent home, and return migration1
There is no difference in the migration rates of top students who were born abroad from those who are born in the home country

Summary

Introduction

Brain drain has long been one of the most common concerns developing countries have about migration. 70 percent of chemistry Olympians, 66 percent of maths Olympians, and 51 percent of Bursary top scholars were the Dux or Proxime Accesit (the second best student) at their schools These four groups give a sample frame of 851 highly skilled individuals who graduated secondary school in New Zealand over the 1976-2004 period. We test whether these cohort differences are significant by estimating probit regressions of ever having migrated at age 21, age 25, and age 30 as a function of dummies for these cohort groups. The PNG sample has relatively high levels of both studying abroad (88 percent), and working abroad (46 to 66 percent)

Modeling the Decision to Migrate

Conclusions and Policy Implications

Notes: