The methodological approaches to prognostication of morbidity summary coefficient on the basis of studying patterns of natality order

Abstract

The methodological approaches to total birth rate prognostication based on the study of births order-predicted patterns. The article considers issues of forecasting total birth rate as key indicator characterizing intensity of demographic processes. This problem is also relevant to the Russian Federation, since birth rates are evaluation criteria of social economic situation governing in regions. The lacking of available data in scientific methodological publications describing forecasting methods complicates understanding of demographic processes and reduces management efficiency. The methodology of predicting total birth rate states construction of causal relationships for birth rates differentiated by mother's age and birth order. The forecasting technique involves construction of multiple regression models for dependencies between the births' distributions for different birth order with the time lag parameters. To determine the delay values, iterative procedure using correlation analysis with data offset in 1-year increments was applied. To determine the time lag, offset corresponding to the maximum reliable correlations between the total birth rates depending on the children's birth of the current and subsequent order was implemented. The results obtained via correlation and regression analysis as system of equations allowed to predict total birth rate for given sequence of births from previous ones. At the same time, frequency of first births must be set following statistical series of this data. The proposed methodological approach used extrapolation of previous period trend as exponential function. Methodical approaches were tested using actual data on birth rates in a large region of the Russian Federation with a population close to 3 million people. State statistical observation form was used to perform the forecast. The results of forecasting total birth rate revealed period of temporary increase and subsequent decrease of indicator. The forecast of temporary increasing of total fertility rate is based on time lag observed between birth of the first child and subsequent children. The decreasing of studied indicator is based on negative dynamics of first births, but if the process is managed it is likely to stabilize indicator that results in its subsequent increasing.