The Method of Soft Computing of Pilot Reliability Depending on Age

Abstract

This work is a statistical and analytical modeling of the individual reliability of a person depending on age. The soft computing method is used. Descriptions of statistical, experimental studies and results are given. Studies of flight safety civil aviation are executed. It is used heatmaps for calculating of levels of dependability of a person’s age. Soft Computing (SC), statistical and expert methods for calculating a person’s properties are used. SC concept is proposed. The author of this work gives SC formal definition output. New quantitative dependences of the frequency of aviation accidents (AA) events on the pilot’s age in non-integer continuous values for years are obtained. An integral indicator of the total pilot’s flight time of hours was established. The results’ novelty is to establish the accounting of indicators for time periods: flight task (day), month, 90 days, six months, year. This structure and the established values of indicators allow for continuous monitoring and rationing of operational dependability of airline flight resources to ensure flight safety. The task of calculating the values of aviation accident probabilities depending on the pilot’s age by years is set and solved.KeywordsSoft computingReliabilityDependabilityCivil aviationFlight safetyPilotAge